Office: Grant Hall #11, 907-564-8271, dlehman@alaskapacific.edu, http://polar.alaskapacific.edu/dlehman
"All models are wrong, some are useful." (W. Edwards Deming)
This course aims to develop abilities to build spreadsheet models and analyze the inherent uncertainty in modeling business decision problems. The goal is to improve decision-making by increasing the awareness and analysis of uncertainty. The course will use Excel and Crystal Ball software extensively. This is a quantitative course, not a mathematics course. The emphasis is on application and use of these tools, including the presentation of results.
Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets Stephen G. Powell and Kenneth R. Baker, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2007. The book includes software that requires Excel. We will be using brand new software - ModelRisk. The book has a web site: http://bcs.wiley.com/he-bcs/Books?action=index&itemId=0470038403&bcsId=3601.
There will be a significant number of homework problems, comprising one half of your course grade. This includes the grades on your attempted answers to the problems as well as your participation in the classroom discussion of the answers. The remaining half of the course grade will be based on two case studies (equally weighted) - one assigned and conducted as part of the class (with a small group) and the other a project of your own choosing (either independent or in a small group).
Part 1: Introduction, Visualization Techniques, Excel Skills
Chapter 1,2,3,4
Part 2: Spreadsheet Engineering and Analysis, including forecasting
Chapters 5,6,7,8,9
Part 3: Simulation and Optimization
Chapters 15, 16
Part 4: Network Models and Decision Trees
Chapters 12,14
Specific homework assignments, models, lecture notes, etc. appear on the course Moodle site.