Prepared by Greg Brown

Associate Professor

Alaska Pacific University

(907) 564-8267 (gregb@alaskapacific.edu)

In November of 2000, a mail survey was conducted by Alaska Pacific University through a cooperative research agreement with the National Wildlife Federation. The purpose of the survey was to measure what Alaska residents value about Prince William Sound and to measure attitudes and opinions about specific policy issues such as shoreline development, tourism growth, jet-ski use, and cruise ship regulation. The survey contacted 1825 Alaska residents living in the Prince William Sound communities of Cordova, Valdez, Whittier; the villages of Tatitlek and Chenega Bay; the city of Anchorage; and a random statewide sample of Alaskan residents. Over 540 responses were received with an overall response rate of 31%.

The mail survey contained questions in seven sections: 1) how frequent residents visit Prince William Sound and what activities they participate in, 2) resident attitudes toward potential activities in the Sound such as commercial fishing, resort development, and personal watercraft, 3) resident preferences for specific policy choices in the next 10-15 years such as the amount of new shoreline development, regulation of personal watercraft, cruise ship use, and regulation of commercial tour boats, 4) resident perceptions of the magnitude of potential future impacts to Prince William Sound (e.g., oil spills, cruise ships, tour boats, commercial fishing), 5) what residents value most about the Sound from a list of 13 values (aesthetic, economic, recreation, life sustaining, learning, biological diversity, spiritual, intrinsic, historic, future, subsistence, therapeutic, and cultural) and where these values are spatially located in the Sound, 6) resident preferences for recreational experiences in the Sound, and 7) respondent characteristics (for example, in terms of length of residence, formal education, gender, and occupation).

1. Response Rate. The overall response rate was 31 percent. Response rates varied by community with Whittier having the highest response rate (46%) and the small villages of Tatitlek and Chenega Bay having the lowest response rate (12%). These response rates compare favorably with two similar public surveys conducted in Alaska in 1998 and 1999 that had 30 and 25 percent response rates respectively. The participation of Whittier residents was more than double their participation rate in the two previous studies. In general, the relatively high response rates from the communities of Cordova, Valdez, and Whittier reflect a high degree of saliency and interest by these communities in Prince William Sound marine issues.
2. Perception of PWS ecological condition. Perceptions of PWS ecological conditions tend toward the healthy rather than unhealthy but perceptions vary by community. Mixed health conditions (both stressed and unstressed areas) are perceived by a majority of Cordova, Whittier, and Statewide residents while Anchorage and Valdez residents generally perceive PWS to be more ecologically healthy. Cordova residents had the highest percentage of respondents (7%) indicating unhealthy or poor ecological conditions in the Sound.
3. Attitudes toward specific PWS activities. Activities were categorized into 3 groups based on mean responses to attitudinal questions (1=Strongly favor, 2=Favor, 3=Neither favor nor or oppose, 4=Oppose, 5=Strongly oppose).

Favorable: (mean value < 2.75) Sightseeing (private boat), sightseeing (tour boat), commercial fishing, sport fishing, sport hunting, subsistence fishing/hunting, non-motorized boat recreation, primitive cabins, mariculture, fish hatcheries, communication sites, helicopter skiing, commercial flightseeing.

Mixed (mean value 2.75-3.25): sightseeing (large cruise ships).

Unfavorable (mean value > 3.25): personal watercraft/jet-skis, resort development, and floating lodges.

4. Shoreline development. The most frequent response was "small amount of shoreline development" (44%) and this result was consistent across communities. Cordova and Whittier residents are most opposed to new shoreline development with about one in four respondents (25%) opposed to any new shoreline development. About 5% of all respondents favor a high level of shoreline development. If new shoreline development was to occur, the most favorable type of shoreline development would be primitive campsites and day use areas while the least favorable type of shoreline development would be manufacturing sites, resorts, and marinas for tour boats and cruise ships.
5. Jet-ski use. Respondents believe that jet-skis should either be banned completely (35%) or regulated (43%) in PWS. Strongest opposition to the use of jet-skis occurs in the communities of Whittier and Anchorage. Regulating jet-skis for reasons of protecting marine animals and sensitive shoreline areas and for public safety have more support than regulating for reasons of quiet/solitude, but all three reasons provide acceptable justification for jet-ski regulation.
6. Cruise ship activity in PWS. About one-third (35%) of the respondents support a small increase in the number of cruise ships while about 27% support the current number of cruise ships. Cordovans are most opposed to further cruise ship activity with about one in four respondents favoring a decrease or the elimination of cruise ships. Nonetheless, 38% of Cordovan respondents support a small increase in the number of cruise ships. The communities of Whittier and Valdez appear most supportive of increased numbers of cruise ships with about one quarter (25%) of respondents indicating a preference for a large increase in the number of cruise ships. Overall, the majority of respondents favor the status quo or a small increase in the number of cruise ships. When preference is expressed for the size of cruise ships, respondents favor smaller cruise ships. However, the largest category of responses indicates no preference on cruise ship size. The preferred community for increased cruise ship activity is Valdez with the exception of respondents from Whittier who favor their own community for increased cruise ship activity.
7. Increased visitation and the Whittier access project. A majority of respondents (68%) support development of new facilities in PWS to protect the environment and enhance recreation but do not support the development of larger scale recreation and resort facilities.
8. Tour boat operators. A high percentage of respondents (83%) believe that tour boats will need to be regulated in the next 10-15 years for their numbers, and most importantly, for their air and water pollution discharges.
9. Risks/impacts to PWS. Oil spills are viewed as having the largest future potential impact on PWS followed by commercial logging and mining, shoreline development and cruise ships. The smallest perceived impacts to PWS are subsistence fishing/hunting, private boaters/kayakers, and commercial fishing.
10. Visit/recreation experience preference. In general, respondents lean more toward a primitive recreation experience than a developed experience in PWS with a preference for seeing fewer humans and having fewer facilities and structures. Respondents show a slight preference for experiencing greater risk and challenge in the Sound with less management control. In terms of accessing the Sound, respondents indicate a slight preference for motorized access.
11. Values. The highest ranked values for PWS (by frequency of value mentioned) are: 1) aesthetic, 2) recreation, 3) economic, 4) biological diversity and 5) subsistence values. The lowest values are 13) spiritual, 12) intrinsic, 11) therapeutic, 10) historic, and 9) learning value. The highest ranked values for PWS (by average value) are: 1) aesthetic, 2) economic, 3) recreation, 4) subsistence, and 5) biological diversity while the lowest ranked values are: 13) therapeutic, 12) spiritual, 11) historic, and 10) learning. Cordova is unique among the communities in having "economic" value ranked as the highest value.
12. Respondent characteristics. Respondents in the survey average 47 years of age and have lived in Alaska an average of 26 years. More men (62%) responded than women (38%) and 43% percent of respondents had completed at least a college degree. About 84% of respondents were white and 8% were Alaska Native. The most common activities reported by respondents were: 1) sport/recreation fishing, 2) using Alaska Marine Highway, 3) subsistence gathering, and 4) touring/sightseeing in private boat while the least common activities reported were sailing, using personal watercraft (jet-skis), and kayaking/canoeing.

Residents of Prince William Sound deeply care about their marine environment. They value the Sound for many reasons, but of greatest importance are its scenic beauty, recreational opportunities, and economic bounty, particularly commercial fishing. Subsistence values are especially important to residents of Cordova and the villages of Tatitlek and Chenega Bay.

Residents perceive the Sound to be in relatively good ecological condition and want it to remain that way. They believe shoreline development should be limited and targeted to protecting the marine environment or enhancing primitive recreation opportunities. They do not support resort development or floating lodges.

Residents are concerned about tourism growth in the Sound but are open to small, incremental growth in cruise ship activity. All communities oppose a large increase in cruise ship numbers while the community of Cordova is most negative about cruise ship activity. If cruise ship activity were to increase, the community of Valdez is the preferred community to locate the growth. Residents also believe that tour boat operators will need to be regulated to protect the Sound. In addition to controlling air and water discharges, residents believe that all aspects of tour boats operations may require regulation in the next 10-15 years.

Residents are negative about personal watercraft (jet-ski) use in the Sound and a significant portion of respondents (42%) would ban them completely. Short of a ban, residents believe that jet-skis need to be regulated for reasons of marine protection, public safety, and solitude.

Finally, the largest potential impacts to Prince William Sound are perceived to be from oil spills, mining or logging activity, cruise ship activity, and shoreline development. If this assessment is accurate, these are the areas where the greatest resources (individual, institutional and budgetary) should be concentrated to limit negative impacts on the marine environment.

There are at least 4 major sources of potential error in survey research: coverage error—how adequately the sampling frame covers or is inclusive of the actual sample population; measurement error—how well the survey questions measure what they are intended to measure; sampling error—how large the sample size is as a function of the target population; nonsampling error (nonresponse)—how much bias is introduced through non-participation? Each of these sources of error is addressed below.

Sampling frame: Survey participants were randomly selected from the year 2000 Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Database. This database contains the names and addresses of an estimated 90 percent of Alaska residents. The PFD database under represents new residents to Alaska, i.e., residents who have lived in Alaska less than 2 years. Thus, sampling frame coverage is high but the newcomer population segment is specifically excluded from the sample.

Survey instrument: questions in the survey instrument were pre-tested and peer reviewed by other social scientists prior to implementation. Some of the survey measures such as landscape values have been used and published in previous research. Measurement error is believed to be within acceptable limits.

Sampling error: Initial sample sizes were chosen to provide a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent on a Yes/No type question with a 95 percent confidence level. The number of nonrespondents affects the confidence level and/or margin of error associated with the reported results (assuming no additional error is introduced through nonresponse bias). The final level of sampling error by community on a single Yes/No question (assuming the most conservative population estimate of .5) given the actual response rate would be as follows: Whittier (65% confidence level within +/- 5%), Cordova (82% confidence level within +/- 5%), Valdez (79% confidence level within +/- 5%), Anchorage (65% confidence level within +/- 5%), Statewide (62% confidence level within +/- 5%).

Nonsampling error. The greatest threat to the accuracy of the reported results is the potential for nonresponse bias. One method to account for nonresponse bias is to assess the representativeness of repondents by comparing their characteristics with community characteristics from census data. Responses from the Cordova/Valdez communities contain more males (62% survey vs. 55% 1999 census estimate), are somewhat older (7.7% in survey 65 years or older vs. 5.9% 1999 census estimate), more educated (36% in survey with college degree vs. an estimated 20% from 1990 census data), and under represent minority groups (9.2% Alaska Native in survey vs. 13.8% 1999 census estimate). Responses from Anchorage are similar: respondents contain more males, are somewhat older, have more formal education, and slightly under represent (about 2%) minority groups. The potential effect of these respondent biases cannot be discounted; nevertheless, the discrepancies in respondent characteristics do not appear large enough to invalidate the strongest findings in the survey.